Changyu, China’s largest domestic wine producer, expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to fall 75.43% to 81.98% year on year in 2025, a drop that would push annual earnings to their lowest level since the company’s stock market listing.
In an earnings forecast released late on Jan. 29, the company said it expects net profit attributable to shareholders for the year to range between RMB 55 million and RMB 75 million (approximately $7.64 million to US$10.42 million). Net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecast at RMB 30 million to RMB 40 million (about US$4.17 million to US$5.56 million), down 69.48% to 77.11% from a year earlier.
Changyu attributed the sharp decline primarily to persistently weak demand in China’s wine market, which led to a significant year-on-year fall in operating revenue. Sales of mid- to high-end products declined particularly sharply, directly undermining the company’s overall profitability. The filing did not disclose specific revenue figures or the exact scale of the drop.
The earnings outlook suggests that the steep fall in 2025 net profit was driven not by rising costs, but by pressure on the sales side, with declining revenue compressing profit margins.
Founded in 1892 in Yantai by entrepreneur Zhang Bishi, Changyu is often referred to as a “century-old” company and is widely regarded as China’s flagship domestic wine producer. It listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s main board in 2000, with core businesses covering wine, brandy and other alcoholic beverages.
Over the years, Changyu has built wineries in Yantai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, while expanding overseas through acquisitions in France, Spain, Australia and Chile. In recent years, it has increased investment in mid- to high-end wines, including the Longyu Estate in Ningxia, Kilikanoon Estate in Australia’s Clare Valley and Chilean organic producer Indomita.
The market response, however, has been muted.
In 2024, Changyu reported year-on-year declines of 25.26% in revenue and 42.68% in net profit, marking its weakest performance in nearly two decades. The company subsequently lowered its 2025 revenue target to no less than RMB 34 billion (about US$4.72 billion), a 27.66% cut from a previously announced—but unmet—target of RMB 47 billion (around US$6.53 billion).
With revenue continuing to fall sharply in 2025, as indicated by the latest earnings forecast, whether Changyu can meet even this reduced target remains uncertain.
At the company’s 2025 shareholders’ meeting, general manager Sun Jian acknowledged the depth of the challenge, saying the company was “getting further and further away from consumers.”
“We have failed to develop products that truly meet their needs, failed to create consumption scenarios they enjoy, and failed to deliver emotional value that resonates with them,” he said.
In an effort to reverse the downturn, Changyu has begun adjusting its product and market strategy. In 2025, the company launched a new white wine brand, “Long tailed Cat,” aimed at younger consumers. How much the new product will contribute to earnings in 2025, however, remains unclear.
Beyond weaker core revenue, the sharp decline in 2025 profit was also partly due to lower gains from asset disposals. Changyu disclosed that it recorded RMB 127 million (about US$17.6 million) in gains from the sale of its Laizhou vineyard base in 2024. Comparable disposal gains in 2025 fell sharply, further weighing on earnings.
Discover more from Vino Joy News
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
