Enough to Fill 2,100 Olympic Pools: Italy’s Wine Glut Hits Record

Italy is now sitting on 53.3 million hectolitres of unsold wine — the equivalent of more than 2,100 Olympic-size swimming pools — the highest level ever recorded. As production rebounds while demand continues to soften, mounting inventories, export headwinds and weak brand recognition are pushing the country’s wine industry towards a critical inflection point.

According to a report released by Cantina Italia, a key data and research institution for the country’s wine industry, unsold inventories have climbed to historic highs. As of Nov. 30, 2025, Italian producers were holding 53.3 million hectolitres of wine in storage, up 8.6% from a year earlier.

Official wine registry data add further context: around 9.7 million hectolitres of grape must and 9.5 million hectolitres of newly produced wine remain in fermentation. The steady accumulation of stock reflects deeper structural changes across the sector. The challenge, industry observers say, is no longer confined to vineyard output but increasingly to sales scale and the speed at which inventories can be cleared.

The build-up has been driven by a convergence of factors. After a sharp grape harvest shortfall in 2023, production rebounded strongly in both 2024 and 2025. Demand, however, failed to recover at the same pace, gradually exposing a widening supply–demand mismatch.

At the same time, the international environment has become more complicated. While Italy’s overall wine exports have remained relatively stable, rising global uncertainty has slowed circulation in overseas markets, further amplifying domestic inventory pressure.

Asia under pressure

Weakness has been most evident in two of Asia’s biggest markets – China and Japan. Both recorded notable declines in Italian wine imports in 2025.

China Customs data show that from January to November 2025, China imported about 13.0 million litres of Italian wine, worth US$83.69 million. Import volumes fell 15.74% year on year, while import value declined 12.15%.

Figures released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance tell a similar story. Over the same period, Japan imported around 39.37 million litres of Italian wine, valued at ¥29.2 billion (about US$184 million), with volume and value down 9.81% and 9.11%, respectively.

Group-buying channels retreat

Against this backdrop, Vino Joy News spoke with several importers active in China’s Italian wine market, many of whom described similar pressures, though with clear divergence across sales channels.

EMW Fine Wines, a company with strong exposure to on-trade channels, also felt pressure on Italian wine sales in 2025. Performance, however, varied sharply by channel.

Marketing director Juanita Yu said Italian wine sales in the on-trade remained relatively stable, declining by only about 5% over the year. Instant retail channels, by contrast, recorded double-digit growth. The sharpest contraction came from group-buying.

“Corporate clients have tightened their event budgets, and the number of events has fallen noticeably,” Yu said, attributing the trend largely to a weaker overall market environment.

Exchange rates dampen buying appetite

Claire Xu, China representative for historic Italian winery Biondi Santi, said export volumes from leading Italian brands to China did indeed decline in 2025, with currency movements playing a central role.

“The euro–renminbi exchange rate has moved above 8, and at one point last year reached 8.3,” she said. “Many importers are already holding inventory and prefer to wait for the rate to fall back below 8 before placing new orders.”

Public data show the euro traded at around 1:7.8 against the renminbi through much of 2023 and 2024, before breaking above 8 from April 2025 — a shift that materially raised import costs.

At the same time, costs at Italian wineries have continued to rise. Xu said her winery has not expanded production, but operating expenses have climbed steadily, pushing prices higher year after year. The combined effect of currency pressure and rising costs has further squeezed importers.

“In a deflationary environment, distributors struggle to accept price increases,” she said. “Importers are left absorbing the pressure by compressing their own margins.”

The drag of weak brand power

While exchange-rate pressure affects all EU producers, Xu argued that Italian wine’s deeper vulnerability lies in brand building.

“The Italian wine industry has long lacked coordination,” she said. “Unlike Bordeaux, southern France or Burgundy, there has been no sustained, collective promotion in China through strong regional associations.” She added that complex appellations and wine names further raise barriers to consumer understanding.

As the market slows, distributors have begun to retrench. “I know of large wine companies that cancelled agency rights for roughly 30% of their brands at once,” Xu said. “When conditions deteriorate, marginal brands are often dropped outright — and Italian wines are hit harder.”

Differences in taste preferences

Fang Yi, general manager of Changsha-based boutique distributor Changsha Puyi Cellar Door, said stylistic differences also weigh on sales, particularly for premium wines from northern Italy.

“These wines differ significantly from the Bordeaux, Napa Valley or Australian styles most Chinese consumers are familiar with,” Fang said. “They tend to remain confined to an enthusiast niche, and that group’s loyalty is often insufficient to support scale.”

“Even bestsellers like Penfolds 407 first solve the basic question of whether consumers find the wine enjoyable,” he added. “Only after that do brand stories and added value come into play.”

Fang said he has reduced exposure to northern Italian wines in recent years, shifting more focus to southern Italian regions, where styles are more approachable and offer stronger value for money. That segment recorded positive growth in 2025, he said.

Despite near-term pressure, Fang remains cautiously optimistic about Italian wine’s longer-term prospects in China. The key, he argued, lies in patience and a renewed focus on the product itself.

“As long as producers seriously dig into the intrinsic value of Italian wine and allow time for awareness barriers to be broken,” he said, “the market will eventually open up.”