Australia’s wine exports suffered a 14% drop in the past 12 months ended in March 2026, with softer demand in its key markets including China, the UK and US weighing on overall performance despite strong growth in Southeast Asia and Canada.
According to the Wine Australia, export value fell 14% year-on-year to A$2.28 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, while export volumes dropped 7% to 603 million litres, 15% below the 10-year average of 711 million litres.
With global demand yet to fully recover, a pullback in China alongside weakness in two key traditional markets — the UK and the US — has dragged on exports. In contrast, other Asian markets and Canada have emerged as pockets of growth.
China shipments decline after initial rebound
Exports to mainland China fell sharply over the period, with value down 29% to A$728 million and volume declining 25% to 73 million litres. Average export prices dropped 6% to A$10.03 per litre.
Wine Australia noted that tariffs on Australian bottled wine were lifted at the end of March 2024, triggering a rapid rebound that briefly brought exports close to pre-tariff levels. Over the past 12 months, however, shipments have gradually normalised, aligning more closely with underlying demand — a trend particularly evident in the past six months.
Data from the regulator shows export value to China peaked in March last year, with volumes reaching a high in April. Since then, value has steadily declined, while volumes saw a short-lived uptick between January and March this year but remained below year-earlier levels.
The trend differs somewhat from Chinese customs data. As previously reported by Vino Joy News, China’s imports of Australian wine fell 9.25% in volume and 1.32% in value in 2025, but rebounded in the first quarter of 2026, rising 25.93% and 0.70% respectively.
The discrepancy may be partly explained by shipments previously held in bonded warehouses in China that were cleared in the first quarter, boosting import figures without being reflected in Australian export data.
China market: active but not fully recovered
On the ground, Australia’s wine presence in China is improving, though the market has yet to return to pre-tariff levels.
Hong Boyong, CEO of Pran Cellar, a Shanghai-based importer representing more than 20 Australian boutique wineries, said demand has picked up over the past six months.
“From our business performance, Australian wines are taking up a larger share of revenue, and customer preference has not weakened,” he said. “We’ve also continued to bring in new wineries to diversify our portfolio and stimulate demand.”
He added that supply is becoming more visible across channels, from e-commerce and livestreaming to offline retail, with particularly strong performance in mid- to high-end segments.
Large retailers and instant retail platforms — including Sam’s Club, Hema, Aldi and Jiu Xiao Er — have increased their sourcing of Australian wines, often through direct procurement models that improve price competitiveness. Some Barossa Valley and McLaren Vale wines are now retailing for around RMB 60.
However, Hong noted that the structural impact of anti-dumping measures and the pandemic has yet to be fully absorbed.
“Whether in terms of brand-building systems or penetration into key channels such as on-trade, instant retail and supermarkets, the market has not yet returned to previous levels,” he said. “Recovery will take time.”
Asia picks up momentum
Beyond China and Hong Kong, Australian wine exports to the rest of Asia showed broad-based growth.
In the 12 months to March 2026, export value to other Asian markets rose 19% to A$393 million, while volumes increased 7% to 44 million litres, exceeding the five-year average growth rate of 7%.
Growth was led by Southeast Asia. Exports to Singapore rose 17%, Thailand surged 35% to a record A$64 million, Malaysia increased 41%, and Indonesia jumped 114%.
More mature markets also expanded, with exports to Japan and South Korea rising 10% and 6% respectively.
By contrast, exports to Taiwan, the Philippines, India and Vietnam declined by 3%, 22%, 1% and 2%, with the Philippines seeing the steepest drop.
UK and US weaken, Canada stands out
In the UK, export value fell 5% to A$336 million, while volumes declined 9% to 190 million litres, extending the post-pandemic slowdown.
Bulk wine continues to dominate the UK market, accounting for around 91% of imports, with local bottling. Bulk shipments fell 7%, while packaged wine exports dropped 18%. However, higher-end wines priced above A$10 per litre saw volumes grow 16%, maintaining an average annual growth rate of about 5% over the past five years.
In the US, export value declined 22% to A$251 million, while volumes were broadly flat, down 1% to 105 million litres. Average FOB prices fell 21% to A$2.39 per litre, with more than 90% of the decline concentrated in the A$2.50–A$4.99 price segment — the core of Australia’s US business.
Canada, by contrast, delivered strong growth. Export value rose 24% to A$188 million, volumes increased 15% to 69 million litres, and average prices climbed 8% to A$2.73 per litre.
The surge was driven in part by shifts in procurement by provincial liquor boards following US tariffs on Canadian goods in early 2025, which led to a temporary reduction in US wine listings and created space for Australian brands.
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