After a bruising pandemic slump and prolonged consumption drops, more than half of wine trade professionals and producers – both at home and abroad – expect their economic fortunes to improve this year in China, according to a new ProWine International Business Report China 2025.
Commissioned by ProWine China and produced in partnership with Geisenheim University – publisher of the ProWein Business Report for over eight years – this marks the first survey to capture both domestic trade professionals’ and international producers’ perspectives on China’s wine market.
The findings offer a rare moment of optimism for a market that has struggled with falling imports, shifting consumer tastes and stock overhangs. Of the 264 producers and trade experts surveyed, while only one in four of the respondents rated their economic situation as “good” to “very good” in 2024, the majority of them are expecting a turnaround in 2025. To be precise, 53% of the respondents expected business conditions to improve in 2025, while 6% expect it to improve significantly.
53% of the respondents expected business conditions to improve in 2025, while 6% expect it to improve significantly.
When it comes to wine‐sales forecasts for 2025, trade experts are notably more upbeat than producers. Seventy‐two percent of trade experts expect sales to remain stable or grow, and 39% of them expect wine sales this year to grow by at least 5%, compared to 32% of producers; meanwhile, producers are twice as more likely to foresee further declines (45% v.s. 29%).
Another encouraging sign is that both producers and trade professionals identified unsold inventory as the least significant threat to wine sales in China, signalling healthy sell-through rates and confidence in inventory turnover. By contrast, economic uncertainty and tariffs emerged as the most pressing challenges, followed by supply-chain consolidation.
Outlook for Alcoholic Beverages by 2027
Broadening the lens to all alcoholic drinks through 2027, the divergence softens. Trade experts see strong growth ahead for domestic Chinese wine (57%), ready-to-drink cocktails (42%), and imported sparkling wine (40%). Producers, meanwhile, place their highest hopes in the rapidly expanding RTD and cocktail segment (53%) and in cider and perry (53%), followed by imported sparkling wine (41%).
Both groups agree that imported still wine, spirits, and traditional baijiu face tougher headwinds throughout 2027.
However, as for wine style trends through 2027, dry white wines topped the list for both wine trade and producers. Among traders, 55% expected white wines to perform strongly, while 44% of producers shared that outlook.
Producers showed even stronger confidence in low- and non-alcoholic wines, with 69% identifying them as the most promising category by 2027. Sparkling wines were also widely seen as having strong potential, supported by 45% of traders and 49% of producers.
Still red wines, however, revealed the biggest divide: 51% of traders anticipated strong performance from the category, while only 29% of producers agreed.
Semi-sweet white wines showed some potential, while fruit-flavoured beverages, semi-sweet reds, and RTD (ready-to-drink) wine-based drinks were seen as less promising in the Chinese market.
“The report clearly outlines growing optimism about the future development of the wine market,” explains Prof. Simone Loose, Head of the Institute for Wine and Beverage Business at Geisenheim University, who led the study. “Experts anticipate increasing interest in white and sparkling wines. Key growth drivers will include attracting new consumers, creating new wine-drinking occasions, and using localised digital storytelling that resonates with Chinese culture.”
Young and Digital
When it comes to growth opportunities for wine sales, trade experts rank growing interest among younger generations (66%) and wine tourism (59%) at the top of their opportunity list, betting that fresh demographics and experiential travel will drive wine consumption in the future.
Producers are more focused on a near-term uptick in imports once existing stock is cleared (71%) and on establishing direct shipping routes to mainland China—bypassing Hong Kong intermediaries (56%)—to boost their sales.
Both groups however agree that creating new consumption occasions for wine (84%) and expanding wine audience and targeting new consumers (80%) are important for future growths.
What’s also revealing about the survey is its unmistakable digital shift from consumer education to sales.
Digital channels are set to steal more market share from traditional wine retailers. Nearly eight in ten trade experts and producers (77%) believe social-media and livestream shopping experiences on platforms such as Douyin and Little Red Book — will be the fastest-growing wine sales channels by 2027, while over half (52%) believe KOLs and celebrity brand ambassadors will drive sales in the next three years.
These primarily social media-powered digital sales channels will far outperform traditional channels such as on-trade, wine shops and even e-commerce, according to the trade experts and producers surveyed.
And it’s not just about where wine is sold, but how it’s framed. Both groups believe localised storytelling that resonates with Chinese culture is the most effective approach. This bodes well for domestic producers, who are adept at framing wine through a local lens.
And it’s not just about where wine is sold, but how it’s framed. Both groups believe localised storytelling that resonates with Chinese culture is the most effective approach.
Following this, sophistication, a cosmopolitan lifestyle, and curiosity rank as the second and third most influential factors. Additionally, natural and organic wines with minimal additives are considered more appealing than marketing wine based on health-related benefits. Meanwhile, status and the appeal of a Western lifestyle have declined in importance compared to a few years ago.
Strategic Patience
Despite persistent challenges, most international producers are holding their ground. About 58% of producers said they aimed to be “ready and well-positioned when the market begins to grow again.” Only 25% said they would consider exiting the China market if sales did not improve within one to two years.
However, for many producers exporting to China, the mainland is no longer their top Asian market—it now ranks fifth. Japan topped the list, followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, all considered more mature and affluent wine markets. After mainland China came South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Conducted in Chinese and English between November 2024 and January 2025, the survey polled 264 ProWine Shanghai–connected participants: 38% producers (including one-third international exporters to China), 19% importers, 11% distributors, 9% retailers, 8% on-trade specialists, 6% wine educators, and 4% each from industry influencers and wine-business organizations, offering a comprehensive cross-sectional snapshot of the market.
For the full ProWine International Business Report China, please contact ProWine team.
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