EU Wine Consumption and Production Set for Long-Term Decline, Report Says

Wine consumption and production in the European Union are expected to continue falling through 2035, signalling a structural shift rather than a short-term downturn for the world’s largest wine-producing bloc, according to the latest EU agricultural outlook.

The report projects that EU wine consumption will decline by about 0.9% per year, bringing per-capita consumption down to around 19.3 litres by 2035, the lowest level down from nearly 30 liters recorded in 2000s, as changing lifestyles, health concerns and policy pressures reshape drinking habits across the region.

Younger consumers are drinking less alcohol overall, while national policies promoting moderate alcohol consumption for health reasons are reinforcing the trend, the report said. Competition from other beverage categories is also intensifying, further weighing on wine demand.

The decline is uneven across the bloc, with countries that have traditionally recorded the highest levels of wine consumption, including France and Germany, experiencing the steepest drops.

At the same time, consumer preferences are shifting away from red wine toward lighter, fresher styles, particularly white and sparkling wines, which are increasingly consumed less frequently and on more specific occasions.

The report also noted a rise in sales of wine-based drinks, including low- and no-alcohol wines, but said volumes are expected to remain small and insufficient to offset the broader decline in traditional wine consumption.

Wine Production

Falling consumption is expected to feed directly into production. EU wine output is projected to decline by about 0.5% per year, dropping to around 138 million hectolitres by 2035, as producers adjust supply to weaker demand.

A steady reduction in vineyard area is a key driver of that trend. The report forecasts vineyard land across the EU will shrink by around 0.6% per year through 2035, assuming average yields remain stable, reflecting economic pressure on growers and a gradual scaling back of production capacity.

Export Markets

Domestic human consumption remains the largest outlet for EU wine, accounting for about 66% of total use, while exports represent roughly 20%. However, the outlook for exports remains uncertain, with several major overseas markets beginning to mirror Europe’s own consumption slowdown.

Shipments to the United States, the EU’s largest export destination, are being weighed down by market uncertainty linked to tariffs, while demand from the United Kingdom, the bloc’s second-largest export market, is also declining.

Although demand is growing in parts of Latin America and Africa, the report said these markets are still too small to stabilise overall EU wine exports.

As a result, EU wine exports are projected to fall by about 0.6% per year through 2035, while imports are expected to decline even faster, reflecting shifting domestic consumption patterns.

Taken together, the projections suggest the EU wine sector is entering a period of managed contraction, with producers increasingly focused on aligning supply with a structurally smaller market rather than pursuing volume growth. The report indicates that while premiumisation and new export destinations may soften the impact, neither is likely to reverse the long-term downward trend in consumption and production across the bloc.