French wine and spirits export volumes fell last year to their lowest level in at least a quarter-century, and industry leaders see little immediate relief ahead. While France’s wine and spirits export federation (FEVS) has pointed to geopolitical tensions with China and the United States as the main culprit, market participants in China argue that weakening demand — not politics — lies at the heart of the downturn.
FEVS Blames Trade Tensions and Tariffs
According to FEVS, export volumes declined 3% year-on-year in 2025 to 168 million cases, marking the lowest level since at least the early 2000s. Export value fell more sharply, down 8% to €14.3 billion (approximately $17.03 billion), a five-year low.
The contraction pushed the sector from France’s long-held position as the country’s second-largest export industry to third place, behind aerospace and cosmetics.
“In volume, our exports have been in a slump and are at their lowest level,” Gabriel Picard, president of FEVS, said at the Wine Paris trade fair, noting that export value has been declining steadily since 2022.
In a separate statement, Picard cited “geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, exchange-rate fluctuations and weakening consumer confidence” as the primary pressures weighing on exports.
Exports to the United States fell 21% in value to €3 billion in 2025, with volumes dropping below 30 million cases, amid tariff increases and threats of additional duties of up to 200%. Meanwhile, China’s anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy further curtailed French spirits shipments, with exports to China declining 20% to €767 million.
“Geopolitical tensions between France and China marked the end of cognac in China,” Picard said. “Stopping something doesn’t take long, but rebuilding takes much longer.”
Chinese Importers See Demand Weakness as Core Issue
Yet Chinese customs data suggest a deeper structural problem.
From January to December 2025, China imported 20.78 million liters of brandy worth US$714 million, down 37.39% in volume and 41.68% in value year-on-year. French wine imports also continued to slide, with volumes falling 36.08% to 33.22 million liters and value declining 14.90% to US$420 million — the fourth consecutive annual drop since 2022.
Frontline importers argue that geopolitics explains only part of the decline.
“The entire alcohol market has been weak this year,” one brandy importer told Vino Joy News. “Even Moutai is seeing declines. The fundamental issue is insufficient demand.”
He noted that during the anti-dumping investigation in 2024, many cognac producers and importers rushed shipments into China ahead of a final ruling, creating a mismatch between shipments and actual consumption. The result was elevated inventory across distribution channels, intensifying pressure on sales.
China’s brandy market is dominated by the so-called “Big Three” — Rémy Martin, Martell and Hennessy — with consumption traditionally centered on business entertainment and gifting in provinces such as Guangdong and Fujian. As corporate spending and formal banquet occasions have contracted under broader economic pressure, brandy demand has weakened accordingly.
For wine, Bordeaux is chiefly responsible for the slump. Fang Yi, general manager of Changsha Puyi Cellar Door and a certified Bordeaux educator, believes Bordeaux in particular is undergoing a process of “disenchantment” in China.
“Bordeaux is extremely well known, and pricing is highly transparent. There is almost no margin left for distributors, so they are reluctant to promote it,” Fang said.
Inventory clearance remains widespread, and price inversions are common. “Selling one case might mean offending an existing customer who bought at a higher price. Many distributors would rather step aside.”
Outside Bordeaux, other French regions have yet to build strong brand equity in China. Burgundy remains one of the few relative bright spots, benefiting from sustained market interest, but its limited production volumes prevent it from materially offsetting the broader downturn.
Europe Holds Steadier Ground
While the U.S. and China have weakened, exports within Europe have been comparatively stable. FEVS data show shipments to European markets reached €4.1 billion last year, with the United Kingdom posting a 3% increase in volume despite fiscal headwinds.
Champagne — which accounts for roughly 35% of the total value of French wine exports — saw volumes edge up slightly, though export value declined 4.5%, partly due to the euro’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar.
David Chatillon, co-president of the Comité Champagne, said the industry hopes for a rebound in 2026, but cautioned that any recovery is likely to be modest, given that broader economic conditions remain largely unchanged.
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