Don St. Pierre: China’s Wine Industry Is Undergoing a ‘Structural Reset’

China’s wine market is not suffering from a temporary downturn. It is undergoing a fundamental reset.

That was the message from Don St. Pierre, founder, executive chairman and CEO of ASC Fine Wines, as more than 50 winery owners, executives and winemakers gathered in Shanghai for the company’s 30th anniversary celebration.

After years of declining wine consumption, shrinking imports and changing consumer habits, one question hung over the discussions: Is China simply experiencing another industry cycle, or has the market fundamentally changed?

St. Pierre believes the answer is clear.

“What we’re seeing is a structural reset,” he said.

And if he is right, many of the assumptions that fuelled wine’s growth in China over the past two decades may no longer apply.

The Opportunity Hasn’t Disappeared. The Consumer Has Changed.

St. Pierre pointed to a statistic recently shared at a Loyal Valley Capital annual meeting. China remains the world’s second-largest consumer market, with retail sales exceeding RMB 50 trillion (USD7.3 trillion). Yet consumption accounts for just 38% of GDP, compared with roughly 68% in the United States.

To him, the implication is straightforward: China’s consumer market still has significant room to grow.

The challenge is that the drivers of growth have changed.

“Structural resets are uncomfortable. They create confusion because old assumptions stop working before new models are fully understood,” he said.

Today, St. Pierre argues, consumers are asking different questions.

“What feels authentic? What aligns with my lifestyle? “

As those questions change, so too does the value proposition of wine.

The Industry Is Being Forced to Re-examine Itself

St. Pierre believes some of the industry’s historical growth was built on foundations that were never entirely sustainable.

“In some markets, wine became overly connected to status signalling. In others, overly dependent on financial speculation. And in many places, disconnected from how younger consumers increasingly think about lifestyle, health and personal identity.

“And now the industry is being forced to re-examine itself.”

That theme resurfaced repeatedly throughout the discussion.

Edouard Moueix, co-owner and managing director of the renowned Vignobles Jean-Pierre Moueix, which distributes top Bordeaux to more than 500 importers across 87 countries, argued that Bordeaux’s long-standing challenge is that too much wine has been treated as an asset rather than a beverage.

“One of Bordeaux’s problems is that the people drinking the wine are not the people buying the wine,” he said. His family owns some of the top names in Bordeaux and California including Château La Fleur-Pétrus, Château Trotanoy, Château Hosanna, Château Bélair-Monange Premier Grand Cru Classé and Dominus Estate and Ulysses.

For Moueix, that disconnect lies at the heart of the issue.

“If you’re not paying for your own pleasure, there’s no long term.”

His point reflects a broader reality facing the fine wine industry. For years, demand was supported by collectors, investors and gift buyers. But once wine becomes detached from personal enjoyment, long-term sustainability becomes harder to maintain.

Looking Forward, Not Backward

Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of Italy’s legendary Marchesi de’ Frescobaldi whose family holdings include Tuscany’s Tenuta CastelGiocondo and Bolgheri’s Ornellaia and Masseto, delivered perhaps the most memorable anecdote of the day.

Discussing how traditional industries often become trapped by their own history, he pointed to the automotive sector. Italians still celebrate the achievements of their historic carmakers of Ferrari or Lamborghini, yet Chinese EV brands such as BYD are producing technologically advanced vehicles that are reshaping the global market.

Wine, he suggested, faces a similar challenge.

He recalled presenting a newly acquired winery in northern Italy to a Russian partner in Moscow seven years ago.

Proud of the estate’s history, he highlighted that the winery had been producing wine since the 1500s.

The response caught him completely off guard.

“‘If nothing works since the 1500s, there is no hope for the wine,’ he told me.”

“It killed me,” Frescobaldi who respresents 30th generation of his family wines. “I went back home almost crying.”

Today, however, he sees wisdom in that remark.

“We have to look at the future.”

The story resonated because it captured a growing tension across the wine industry: how much value should be placed on heritage when consumers increasingly care about relevance?

AI, Discovery and the New Consumer

If history alone is no longer enough, how do wine brands find new consumers?

According to Xiaopi, one of China’s best-known wine influencers and e-commerce entrepreneurs, the answer increasingly lies in data and artificial intelligence.

He shared the example of two white wines that went on to become best-sellers despite having almost no prior recognition in China.

To build awareness, his team gave away 1,000 bottles and encouraged recipients to leave honest reviews.

“We didn’t ask them to say nice things. We only asked them to tell the truth,” he said at a panel on AI, technology and wine moderated by professor Xiao-li Meng of Harvard University. 

The resulting feedback provided valuable data that helped refine future marketing efforts.

Underlying the experiment was a belief famously articulated by Steve Jobs: consumers do not know what they want until they see it.

Xiaopi’s own figures suggest that remains true in wine.

Only around 16% of customers visiting his online store arrive through active searches.

The vast majority discover wines through recommendations, content and algorithms.

“I still believe Chinese consumers don’t know what they want until you show it to them,” he said.

“Our job is to use AI and data to attract them in a way that is respectful, appropriate and valuable.”

The Biggest Opportunity May Be Young Drinkers

Despite the industry’s challenges, several speakers remained optimistic about China’s long-term prospects.

Xiaopi pointed to one statistic in particular: he estimated that approximately 87% of Chinese wine consumers are under the age of 40.

Unlike consumers in mature Western markets, they are not heavily influenced by historical brand hierarchies and show relatively little loyalty to individual labels.

They rarely buy wine by the case. They seldom cellar bottles. Many have little interest in drinking the same wine twice.

According to Xiaopi, repeat purchase rates for individual wines on his platform are often below 5%.

“Young consumers are always looking for something new,” he said.

“They drink one thing today and something different tomorrow. They want a new experience every time.”

For producers, that constant search for novelty creates both a challenge and an opportunity.

And in China, that future is increasingly likely to be shaped by younger consumers, digital channels and brands capable of creating experiences that feel relevant to modern life.