When Old Demand Disappears: Rethinking Wine in China

For much of the past two years, commentary on China’s wine market has been dominated by a single, seemingly obvious conclusion: demand has collapsed.

Imports are down sharply. Inventories have been written off. Long-established domestic producers, importers, and distributors are retrenching or closing down altogether. From a distance, it is easy—perhaps too easy—to conclude that wine has simply fallen out of favor with Chinese consumers.

This conclusion is wrong.

What China is experiencing is not a collapse in interest in wine, but a structural transition in how wine is purchased, consumed, and valued—one that closely mirrors the broader economic transformation underway across the country. As with any major transition, the space between the old and the new is disruptive and painful. But disruption should not be mistaken for disappearance.

What China is experiencing is not a collapse in interest in wine, but a structural transition in how wine is purchased, consumed, and valued—one that closely mirrors the broader economic transformation underway across the country.

China’s economy is moving away from an era defined by investment-led growth, government-driven spending, and scale-first expansion toward one increasingly centered on services, innovation, consumption quality, experience, and value creation. This shift has been uneven and, at times, destabilizing. Entire sectors that once relied heavily on official entertaining, corporate banqueting, and symbolic consumption have been forced to recalibrate—hospitality, luxury goods, and wine included.

Wine, in fact, sits at the center of this transition. For more than a decade, a meaningful portion of wine demand in China was tied—directly or indirectly—to institutional consumption and prestige-oriented luxury purchasing, where wine often served as a symbol of status, gifting power, or social standing. That demand is not returning. And that reality explains much of what we see in the data today.

The problem is not that people have stopped drinking wine. The problem is that legacy demand collapsed faster than new demand could scale, and the industry was structurally unprepared for that gap.

I was reminded of this recently in a conversation with the General Manager of a major international hotel in Chongqing. I asked how tightening rules around dining, alcohol, and entertainment had affected food and beverage sales. His response was unexpected: he saw the change as a positive one.

“Spending like before was never sustainable,” he said. “Now we have to understand who is actually dining and drinking.”

His answer was simple: consumers who care about quality, value, and experience—people who choose to spend, not because they are expected to, but because they want to.

That distinction matters. The disappearance of obligation-driven consumption does not mean the disappearance of real demand. It means the removal of demand that was structurally artificial and ultimately unsustainable—and the slow emergence of demand that is far more durable, which the General Manager saw as an opportunity.

At the highest end of the market, this shift is especially clear: ultra-premium wines continue to be consumed privately among wealthy individuals and close friends, not as a function of business obligation, but as a matter of personal enjoyment, celebration, and shared experience.

A Shift in Behavior, Not Interest

Import statistics capture volume, not behavior. And behavior tells a more nuanced story.

In 2025, we observed strong growth in several areas where trust, convenience, and experience are central.

Sales through a large, nationally recognized retailer with a strong reputation for quality and value continued to grow rapidly. In 2026, this customer expects our wine sales in their stores to grow by approximately 30% year-on-year versus 2025, reflecting accelerating consumer trust in quality, value, and consistency.

Alcohol online-to-offline (OTO) channels—which allow consumers to order wine for near-instant delivery wherever they are—grew by more than 50% last year. These models reflect a fundamental shift in consumption behavior: wine as part of everyday social life, delivered with speed, transparency, and competitive pricing.

At the same time, content- and social-led commerce is increasingly shaping how wine interest is formed. Short-form video, education-driven content, and credible recommendations are shortening what has traditionally been a long decision-making process for imported wine. This does not always translate immediately into import volume, but it plays a critical role in building awareness, confidence, and future demand.

In hotels and restaurants that invest in distinctive experiences and knowledgeable wine teams, food and beverage revenues across our accounts grew by 10–30% year-on-year in 2025. The common thread is not extravagance, but engagement and experience.

None of these trends are well reflected in headline import data. Yet they are powerful indicators of where demand is actually forming.

This behavioral shift is increasingly being acknowledged at an institutional level. Recent communications from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association point to an increased push for a broader reframing of alcohol consumption in China—not as a social obligation, but as a matter of personal choice, enjoyment, and moderation.

As one senior industry leader recently observed, alcohol is increasingly consumed because people want to drink, not because they feel they are expected to. This guidance does not create demand; it recognizes a cultural transition already underway. In the absence of obligation-driven consumption, personal enjoyment is beginning to fill the void.

This transition toward intentional, moderate consumption helps explain why wine is structurally well positioned in the current environment. As a fermented beverage most often consumed with food, wine naturally lends itself to slower pacing, social interaction, and moderation. It integrates into meals, conversations, and everyday moments in a way that is meaningfully different from distilled spirits.

This is not about promoting alcohol for health reasons. It is about recognizing how form and context shape behavior. In a market moving toward choice, experience, and balance, wine fits naturally into how consumers want to drink today.

Why the Industry Still Feels in Crisis

If interest in wine is evolving rather than collapsing, why does the industry feel like it is in crisis? Because the old supply chain was built for the old demand.

Large-scale imports, long credit cycles, inventory-heavy distribution, and channel-pushed selling models made sense when velocity was driven by predictable institutional buyers and prestige-oriented luxury consumption. These models are far less suited to a market where consumption is increasingly fragmented, digital, consumer-driven, and grounded in everyday choice and experience.

The consequences have been painful: inventory overhangs, price distortion, channel conflict, and erosion of trust. These costs are real, and they are being borne across the value chain—from producers to distributors to restaurants and retailers.

What Comes Next

This year marks the 30th anniversary of ASC Fine Wines. Over three decades, the company has grown alongside China’s wine market—from its earliest days of curiosity, through rapid expansion, and now into a far more complex phase.

In June 2025, after ten years away from ownership, our family made the decision to buy back ASC. It was not an obvious moment. Volumes were under pressure, confidence was fragile, and many were questioning the future of wine in China altogether. But for us, the uncertainty clarified rather than obscured the opportunity.

The transition underway made it clear that the next chapter of wine in China would not be built on scale alone, but on relevance, trust, and alignment with how consumers actually drink today.

Family ownership brings with it a longer time horizon—one that extends beyond annual import figures or short-term volatility. That perspective matters in a market undergoing structural change rather than cyclical decline.

This moment forces a fundamental question: what should an importer and distributor be in this new China?

The answer is not simply “bigger,” nor is it “cheaper.” It is about being more useful—to producers, to customers, and ultimately to consumers.

China’s wine market is not disappearing. It is shedding an old structure.

For those willing to adapt, the opportunity remains substantial. The next phase of wine in China may be smaller in some dimensions, but deeper in others. Less about spectacle. More about substance. Less about obligation. More about choice.The real risk today is not that wine will fade from China, but that too many mistake transition for decline—and exit just as the foundations of the next chapter are being laid.