Wine to Shrink as Global Alcohol Market Grows by $34B by 2034

Wine is expected to be the only major alcohol category to shrink in volume over the next decade, even as the global beverage alcohol market adds US$34 billion in value, according to new forecasts from IWSR.

The projected decline comes amid modest overall growth led by beer, spirits, and ready-to-drink (RTD) products, particularly in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and South Africa.

Across the 31 core markets analyzed by IWSR, wine is forecast to decline at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1% through 2034. Nevertheless, premium segments offer some optimism. In Portugal, for instance, higher-end wines are gaining traction thanks to robust tourism and a growing consumer preference for “less but better.”

The new forecasts come after another challenging year for the industry: global Total Beverage Alcohol volumes shrank by -1% in 2024, although value increased by +1%, equating to a US$8.5 billion gain.

Much of the future growth will be driven by emerging markets, with India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa expected to contribute a combined US$28 billion in incremental value by 2034. In contrast, China is projected to decline due to demographic shifts and sustained weakness in its lower-end beer and spirits segments.

Developed markets are also facing headwinds. IWSR projects a US$6 billion decline in value across mature economies, including the U.S., Germany, and the U.K., over the same period.

India Emerges as Global Growth Engine

India emerged as the top growth market in 2024, recording a 6% rise in volume and a 9% increase in value. The expansion was led by whisky and beer, though all major categories saw gains.

IWSR forecasts that India will account for nearly half of all global alcohol market value growth through 2034. The country is set to become the world’s largest market for Scotch whisky by 2027, buoyed by robust economic growth and a rising adult population. The newly signed India-UK free trade agreement in May has cut the 150% import tariff on Scotch whisky to 75%, with a gradual reduction to 40% over the next 10 years.

“India’s strong economic growth and growing adult population are set to drive growth in beer, spirits and RTDs,” said Emily Neill, COO Research & Operations at IWSR. “As well as becoming the world’s biggest market for bottled Scotch by 2027, India is expected to become the world’s third most valuable TBA market, behind China and the U.S., by 2032, eclipsing the U.K.”

Developing Markets Lead the Charge

Other emerging markets are also expected to post meaningful gains. Brazil saw a 1% increase in volume and 5% in value in 2024, with premium beer, RTDs, and brandy fueling growth.

Türkiye is experiencing rising demand for beer and premium-plus whiskies, with Scotch poised to surpass Brazil and the U.K. in volume by 2030.

South Africa is benefiting from increased consumption of beer and wine-based RTDs, which are gaining popularity as a stylish and affordable substitute for traditional wine.